Newhouse Poll: Yoder Up By 17 Points

On behalf of the Yoder for Congress campaign, Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a 400 sample of likely general election voters in Kansas' Third Congressional District. The poll was conducted August 6-8, 2016 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Key Findings

Kevin Yoder leads the ballot by a wide 53%-36% margin. 
Congressman Yoder leads Jay Sidie on the trial heat by a significant 53%-36% margin, winning GOP'ers by a wider margin than Sidie wins Democrats, and having a nearly twenty-point lead among Independents.

Kevin's hard-work in the district has paid off. 
When voters are asked the first couple of words that come to mind regarding Kevin Yoder, voters talk about his "integrity, the way he fights for people," "his willingness to listen," "the fact that he works for the best interests of veterans," "how he stays in touch with his constituents," "that he's done a pretty good job of being bi-partisan," and that "he has conservative values."

Jay Sidie, the Democrat, is unknown. 
Just 19% of voters have even heard of Jay Sidie in the district, with Sidie has a total name ID in the district of 19%, even lower than his 2014 opponent's starting name ID (21%).

Kevin is out-running Donald Trump by a wide margin. 
While Kevin is winning 53% of the vote in this district, Donald Trump currently trails Hillary Clinton by a 44%-38% margin.

But, voters strongly prefer a Congress led by Paul Ryan over Nancy Pelosi.
In a post-up of the two Congressional party leaders, Paul Ryan holds a commanding 57%-36% lead over former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.  These results indicate that if this race comes down to a "checks-and-balances" contest, Kevin Yoder would have a significant edge over Jay Sidie.

Bottom Line

Let's put this race in perspective; Congressman Yoder is above 50% on the ballot, leading his virtual unknown opponent by double digits in a generic GOP district.  Even though Donald Trump does not score well here, neither does the prospect of Democratic control of the House of Representatives.  Add to that mix the fact that Kevin's campaign had $2.18 million cash-on-hand at the end of the most recent reporting quarter, compared to just $73,000 for Sidie.

Kevin's record of independence has suited him well in this district in the past, and will likely bring voters to him who are not supporting other GOP candidates - that's a major reason why he has won every election to the US House with at least 58% of the vote.  Given his current poll and financial standing, there's no reason why that record won't continue. 

The Yoder campaign team is experienced, seasoned, and understands the unique challenges of the 2016 election.  They will be ready for whatever the Sidie campaign, the DCCC and their allies have to throw at them 

Additional Facts and Figures on the State of the Race from Yoder for Congress

A Tale Of Two Primaries

  • Yoder defeated his primary challenger in a landslide victory, winning more than 37,000 votes and capturing 64% of the primary electorate.
  • Notably, Yoder particularly dominated in moderate areas of Johnson County that Sidie would need to win in November to have a viable path to victory, taking 62% in Prairie Village and 64% in both Fairway and Overland Park.
  • Sidie limped out of his primary with only a little over 13,000 votes, an underwhelming 42% of primary Democrats.
  • Sidie failed to gain any traction in Wyandotte County - a must win for Democrats in KS-3 - losing by an embarrassing 5,000 votes and 44 points there. 
  • Even after running his primary election, Sidie's favorable rating sits in the single digits at 8%.

Show Me The Money

  • Yoder currently sports $2.18 million in his war chest and has proven the impressive fundraising pace will continue.
  • Sidie has just $73,000 cash on hand with no clear path to improving his numbers.

KS-03: Republican District

  • Partisan Voter Index of R+6 and a Cook Political Rating of Solid Republican.
  • Yoder has won every election to the US House with more than 58% of the vote.
  • In 2014, despite Larry Sabato's moving KS-3 from Safe Republican to Likely Republican rating, Yoder carried 60% of the vote, thumping his Democrat opponent who was far more well-known and better-financed than Sidie is today.
  • In 2012, Yoder outperformed GOP nominee Mitt Romney in KS-3 by 15 points.
  • In 2010, when KS-3 included half of Democrat-leaning Douglas County instead of Republican-leaning Miami County, Yoder was still easily elected to Congress with 58% of the vote.

Campaigns Matter

  • Yoder for Congress made 143,112 voter contacts during the primary, knocking on 32,608 doors throughout 281 voting precincts and making 110,504 phone calls.
  • In total, it was the most known voter contacts made by any congressional primary campaign in Kansas history.
  • Meanwhile, Sidie has a paltry 19% name ID in the district and Yoder for Congress is already up on TV in the general with an ad titled "Called by Washington, Not Kansas" clearly defining Sidie as the choice of Nancy Pelosi and Washington Democrats.
Paid for by Yoder for Congress, Inc.